Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0628.1 |
Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty | |
Jones, Gareth S.; Kennedy, John J. | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The impact of including comprehensive estimates of observational uncertainties on a detection and attribution analysis of twentieth-century near-surface temperature variations is investigated. The error model of HadCRUT4, a dataset of land near-surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures, provides estimates of measurement, sampling, and bias adjustment uncertainties. These uncertainties are incorporated into an optimal detection analysis that regresses simulated large-scale temporal and spatial variations in near-surface temperatures, driven by well-mixed greenhouse gas variations and other anthropogenic and natural factors, against observed changes. The inclusion of bias adjustment uncertainties increases the variance of the regression scaling factors and the range of attributed warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases by less than 20%. Including estimates of measurement and sampling errors has a much smaller impact on the results. The range of attributable greenhouse gas warming is larger across analyses exploring dataset structural uncertainty. The impact of observational uncertainties on the detection analysis is found to be small compared to other sources of uncertainty, such as model variability and methodological choices, but it cannot be ruled out that on different spatial and temporal scales this source of uncertainty may be more important. The results support previous conclusions that there is a dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence on twentieth-century near-surface temperature increases. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402379600020 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PART II ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20271 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jones, Gareth S.,Kennedy, John J.. Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(12). |
APA | Jones, Gareth S.,&Kennedy, John J..(2017).Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(12). |
MLA | Jones, Gareth S.,et al."Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.12(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论