资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Climate change is causing widespread glacier retreat¹, and much attention is devoted to negative impacts such as diminishing water resources², shifts in runoff seasonality³, and increases in cryosphere-related hazards⁴. Here we focus on a different aspect, and explore the water-storage and hydropower potential of areas that are expected to become ice-free during the course of this century. For roughly 185,000 sites that are glacierized at present, we predict the potentially emerging reservoir storage volume and hydropower potential. Using a climate-driven glacier-evolution model⁵ and topographical analysis⁶, we estimate a theoretical maximal total storage and hydropower potential of 875聽卤聽260 cubic kilometres and 1,355聽卤聽515 terawatt-hours per year, respectively (95% confidence intervals). A first-order suitability assessment that takes into account environmental, technical and economic factors identifies roughly 40 per cent of this potential (355聽卤聽105 cubic kilometres and 533聽卤聽200 terawatt-hours per year) as possibly being suitable for realization. Three quarters of the potential storage volume is expected to become ice-free by 2050, and the storage volume would be enough to retain about half of the annual runoff leaving the investigated sites. Although local impacts would need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis, the results indicate that deglacierizing basins could make important contributions to national energy supplies in several countries, particularly in High Mountain Asia.