Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0144.1 |
Statistical Connection between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Daily Precipitation Events in West Africa | |
Sossa, Awolou1,2; Liebmann, Brant3,4; Blade, Ileana5; Allured, Dave3,4; Hendon, Harry H.6; Peterson, Pete7; Hoell, Andrew4 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Spain; Australia |
英文摘要 | This study focuses on the impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)-as monitored by a well-known multivariate index-on large daily precipitation events in West Africa for the period 1981-2014. Two seasons are considered: the near-equatorial wet season in March-May (MAM) and the peak of the West African monsoon during July-September (JAS), when the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is at its most northerly position. Although the MJO-related interannual variation of seasonal mean rainfall is large, the focus here is on the impacts of the MJO on daily time scales because variations in the frequency of intense, short-term, flood-causing, rainfall events are more important for West African agriculture than variations in seasonal precipitation, particularly near the Guinean coast, where precipitation is abundant. Using composites based on thresholds of daily precipitation amounts, changes in mean precipitation and frequency of the heaviest daily events associated with the phase of the MJO are investigated. The expected modulation of mean rainfall by the MJO is much stronger during MAM than during JAS; yet the modulation of the largest events (i.e., daily rainfall rates above the 90th percentile) is comparable in both seasons. Conservative statistical tests of local and field significance indicate unambiguous impacts of the MJO of the expected sign during certain phases, but the nature of the impact depends on the local seasonal precipitation regime. For instance, in JAS, the early stages of the MJO increase the risk of flooding in the Sahel monsoon region while providing relief to the dry southern coast. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395765900009 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIVARIATE MJO INDEX ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; SUMMER MONSOON ; DYNAMICS ; CONVECTION ; ANOMALIES ; RAINFALL ; CYCLES ; ITCZ |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20339 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UCAR, Significant Opportun Atmospher Res & Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 2.CUNY City Coll, Dept Civil Engn, New York, NY USA; 3.Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 4.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Div Phys Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 5.Univ Barcelona, Dept Fis Aplicada, Seccio Meteorol, E-08007 Barcelona, Spain; 6.Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 7.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Climate Hazards Grp, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sossa, Awolou,Liebmann, Brant,Blade, Ileana,et al. Statistical Connection between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Daily Precipitation Events in West Africa[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(6). |
APA | Sossa, Awolou.,Liebmann, Brant.,Blade, Ileana.,Allured, Dave.,Hendon, Harry H..,...&Hoell, Andrew.(2017).Statistical Connection between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Daily Precipitation Events in West Africa.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(6). |
MLA | Sossa, Awolou,et al."Statistical Connection between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Daily Precipitation Events in West Africa".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.6(2017). |
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