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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0142.1 |
Constraints on Southern Australian Rainfall Change Based on Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations | |
Grose, Michael R.1; Risbey, James S.1; Moise, Aurel F.2; Osbrough, Stacey3; Heady, Craig3; Wilson, Louise3; Erwin, Tim3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric circulation change is likely to be the dominant driver of multidecadal rainfall trends in the midlatitudes with climate change this century. This study examines circulation features relevant to southern Australian rainfall in January and July and explores emergent constraints suggested by the intermodel spread and their impact on the resulting rainfall projection in the CMIP5 ensemble. The authors find relationships between models' bias and projected change for four features in July, each with suggestions for constraining forced change. The features are the strength of the subtropical jet over Australia, the frequency of blocked days in eastern Australia, the longitude of the peak blocking frequency east of Australia, and the latitude of the storm track within the polar front branch of the split jet. Rejecting models where the bias suggests either the direction or magnitude of change in the features is implausible produces a constraint on the projected rainfall reduction for southern Australia. For RCP8.5 by the end of the century the constrained projections are for a reduction of at least 5% in July (with models showing increase or little change being rejected). Rejecting these models in the January projections, with the assumption the bias affects the entire simulation, leads to a rejection of wet and dry outliers. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000391855700014 |
WOS关键词 | SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ; CLIMATE ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20383 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 2.Bur Meteorol Res & Dev, Docklands, Vic, Australia; 3.CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grose, Michael R.,Risbey, James S.,Moise, Aurel F.,et al. Constraints on Southern Australian Rainfall Change Based on Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(1). |
APA | Grose, Michael R..,Risbey, James S..,Moise, Aurel F..,Osbrough, Stacey.,Heady, Craig.,...&Erwin, Tim.(2017).Constraints on Southern Australian Rainfall Change Based on Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(1). |
MLA | Grose, Michael R.,et al."Constraints on Southern Australian Rainfall Change Based on Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.1(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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