GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1038/s41467-018-07191-0
A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend
Sevellec, Florian1,2; Drijfhout, Sybren S.2,3
2018-08-14
发表期刊NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN2041-1723
出版年2018
卷号9
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家France; England; Netherlands
英文摘要

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000441516700001
WOS关键词DECADAL PREDICTABILITY ; CLIMATE ; HIATUS ; MODEL ; LINK
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
URL查看原文
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204083
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Brest, Lab Oceanog Phys & Spatiale, CNRS, IFREMER,UBO,IRD,UMR6523, Brest, France;
2.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England;
3.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sevellec, Florian,Drijfhout, Sybren S.. A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2018,9.
APA Sevellec, Florian,&Drijfhout, Sybren S..(2018).A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,9.
MLA Sevellec, Florian,et al."A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 9(2018).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Sevellec, Florian]的文章
[Drijfhout, Sybren S.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Sevellec, Florian]的文章
[Drijfhout, Sybren S.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Sevellec, Florian]的文章
[Drijfhout, Sybren S.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。