Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1703568114 |
Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE | |
Garner, Andra J.1,2; Mann, Michael E.3,4; Emanuel, Kerry A.5; Kopp, Robert E.2,6; Lin, Ning7; Alley, Richard B.8; Horton, Benjamin P.1,2,9,10; DeConto, Robert M.11; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.12; Pollard, David4 | |
2017-11-07 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
![]() |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:45页码:11861-11866 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Singapore |
英文摘要 | The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from similar to 500 y before 1800 to similar to 25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to similar to 5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclones flood height New York City sea-level rise coastal flooding |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414631200053 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-LEVEL RISE ; TROPICAL CYCLONES ; CMIP5 ; ICE ; PROJECTIONS ; INTENSITY ; THREAT ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204814 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA; 2.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.MIT, Program Atmospheres Oceans & Climate, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02913 USA; 6.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA; 7.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 8.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 9.Nanyang Technol Univ, Asian Sch Environm, Singapore 639798, Singapore; 10.Nanyang Technol Univ, Earth Observ Singapore, Singapore 639798, Singapore; 11.Univ Massachusetts Amherst, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; 12.Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Geol & Geophys, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garner, Andra J.,Mann, Michael E.,Emanuel, Kerry A.,et al. Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(45):11861-11866. |
APA | Garner, Andra J..,Mann, Michael E..,Emanuel, Kerry A..,Kopp, Robert E..,Lin, Ning.,...&Pollard, David.(2017).Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(45),11861-11866. |
MLA | Garner, Andra J.,et al."Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.45(2017):11861-11866. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论