Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1716222114 |
Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall | |
Emanuel, Kerry | |
2017-11-28 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:48页码:12681-12684 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. |
英文关键词 | hurricanes climate change floods |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416891600045 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204821 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emanuel, Kerry. Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(48):12681-12684. |
APA | Emanuel, Kerry.(2017).Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(48),12681-12684. |
MLA | Emanuel, Kerry."Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.48(2017):12681-12684. |
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