GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1073/pnas.1807912115
Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change
Krinner, Gerhard1,3,4; Flanner, Mark G.2
2018-09-18
发表期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN0027-8424
出版年2018
卷号115期号:38页码:9462-9466
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家France; USA; Canada
英文摘要

Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO(2) bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.


英文关键词climate modeling climate change model biases
领域地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000447224900048
WOS关键词CMIP5 MODELS ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS ; SKILL ; EVOLUTION ; IMPACT ; ALBEDO ; LIMITS
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
URL查看原文
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204986
专题地球科学
资源环境科学
气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Inst Geosci Environm, F-38000 Grenoble, France;
2.Univ Michigan, Dept Climate & Space Sci & Engn, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA;
3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada;
4.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Krinner, Gerhard,Flanner, Mark G.. Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(38):9462-9466.
APA Krinner, Gerhard,&Flanner, Mark G..(2018).Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(38),9462-9466.
MLA Krinner, Gerhard,et al."Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.38(2018):9462-9466.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Krinner, Gerhard]的文章
[Flanner, Mark G.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Krinner, Gerhard]的文章
[Flanner, Mark G.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Krinner, Gerhard]的文章
[Flanner, Mark G.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。