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DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1807912115 |
Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change | |
Krinner, Gerhard1,3,4; Flanner, Mark G.2 | |
2018-09-18 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:38页码:9462-9466 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO(2) bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models. |
英文关键词 | climate modeling climate change model biases |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447224900048 |
WOS关键词 | CMIP5 MODELS ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS ; SKILL ; EVOLUTION ; IMPACT ; ALBEDO ; LIMITS |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204986 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Inst Geosci Environm, F-38000 Grenoble, France; 2.Univ Michigan, Dept Climate & Space Sci & Engn, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; 3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; 4.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krinner, Gerhard,Flanner, Mark G.. Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(38):9462-9466. |
APA | Krinner, Gerhard,&Flanner, Mark G..(2018).Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(38),9462-9466. |
MLA | Krinner, Gerhard,et al."Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.38(2018):9462-9466. |
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