Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1809959116 |
Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability | |
Zhu, Feng1; Emile-Geay, Julien1; McKay, Nicholas P.2; Hakim, Gregory J.3; Khider, Deborah1,4; Ault, Toby R.5; Steig, Eric J.6; Dee, Sylvia7; Kirchner, James W.8,9,10 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 116期号:18页码:8728-8733 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate system's integrated memory of orbital forcing. We conclude that climate models appear to contain the essential physics to correctly simulate the spectral continuum of global-mean temperature; however, regional discrepancies remain unresolved. A critical element of successfully simulating suborbital climate variability involves, we hypothesize, initial conditions of the deep ocean state that are consistent with observations of the recent past. |
英文关键词 | climate variability spectral analysis scaling laws model evaluation |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000466446500019 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-RANGE PERSISTENCE ; EARTHS TEMPERATURE ; TIME ; CHEMISTRY ; VARIANCE ; SPECTRUM ; RECORDS ; CYCLES ; SCALES ; TREND |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/205100 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Earth Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA; 2.No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Univ Southern Calif, Informat Sci Inst, Marina Del Rey, CA 90292 USA; 5.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 6.Univ Washington, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 7.Rice Univ, Dept Earth Environm & Planetary Sci, Houston, TX 77005 USA; 8.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 9.Swiss Fed Res Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WS, Mt Hydrol Res Unit, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; 10.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Feng,Emile-Geay, Julien,McKay, Nicholas P.,et al. Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019,116(18):8728-8733. |
APA | Zhu, Feng.,Emile-Geay, Julien.,McKay, Nicholas P..,Hakim, Gregory J..,Khider, Deborah.,...&Kirchner, James W..(2019).Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,116(18),8728-8733. |
MLA | Zhu, Feng,et al."Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 116.18(2019):8728-8733. |
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