Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1901366116 |
Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic | |
Xu, Lei1,2,3,4; Stige, Leif C.2; Leirs, Herwig5; Neerinckx, Simon5; Gage, Kenneth L.6; Yang, Ruifu7; Liu, Qiyong3; Bramanti, Barbara2; Dean, Katharine R.2; Tang, Hui8; Sun, Zhe2,4; Stenseth, Nils Chr.2,4; Zhang, Zhibin1 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
![]() |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 116期号:24页码:11833-11838 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Norway; Belgium; USA |
英文摘要 | Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 degrees C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions. |
英文关键词 | Yersinia pestis Third Pandemic climate change global transmission velocity historical and genomic data |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471039700045 |
WOS关键词 | YERSINIA-PESTIS ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; SPREAD ; FLEA |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/205130 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Zool, State Key Lab Integrated Management Pest Insects, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Synth, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; 3.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; 4.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Evolutionary Ecol Grp, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium; 6.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Vector Borne Dis, Bacterial Dis Branch, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 7.Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China; 8.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Lei,Stige, Leif C.,Leirs, Herwig,et al. Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019,116(24):11833-11838. |
APA | Xu, Lei.,Stige, Leif C..,Leirs, Herwig.,Neerinckx, Simon.,Gage, Kenneth L..,...&Zhang, Zhibin.(2019).Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,116(24),11833-11838. |
MLA | Xu, Lei,et al."Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 116.24(2019):11833-11838. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论