Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0774.1 |
Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to Simulate Observed Rainfall Characteristics over the Western Himalayan Region | |
Meher, Jitendra Kumar1; Das, Lalu1; Akhter, Javed2; Benestad, Rasmus E.3; Mezghani, Abdelkader3 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India; Norway |
英文摘要 | The western Himalayan region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902-2005. Annual and seasonal rainfall change over the WHR of India was estimated using 22 rain gauge station rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The performance of 13 global climate models (GCMs) from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and 42 GCMs from CMIP5 was evaluated through multiple analysis: the evaluation of the mean annual cycle, annual cycles of interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends, and signal-to-noise ratio. In general, CMIP5 GCMs were more skillful in terms of simulating the annual cycle of interannual variability compared to CMIP3 GCMs. The CMIP3 GCMs failed to reproduce the observed trend, whereas approximately 50% of the CMIP5 GCMs reproduced the statistical distribution of short-term (30 yr) trend estimates than for the longer-term (99 yr) trends from CMIP5 GCMs. GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were able to simulate the spatial distribution of observed rainfall in premonsoon and winter months. Based on performance, each model of CMIP3 and CMIP5 was given an overall rank, which puts the high-resolution version of the MIROC3.2 model [MIROC3.2 (hires)] and MIROC5 at the top in CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively. Robustness of the ranking was judged through a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that ranks were independent during the process of adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed that trend analysis was not a robust method of judging performances of the models as compared to other methods. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411436700010 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; MODEL UNCERTAINTY COMPONENTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; INDIAN MONSOON ; RIVER-BASINS ; PCMDI/CMIP3 EXPERIMENTS ; NORTHWESTERN HIMALAYA ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20642 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Dept Agr Meteorol & Phys, Nadia, W Bengal, India; 2.Jadavpur Univ, Dept Phys, Kolkata, India; 3.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Meher, Jitendra Kumar,Das, Lalu,Akhter, Javed,et al. Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to Simulate Observed Rainfall Characteristics over the Western Himalayan Region[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(19). |
APA | Meher, Jitendra Kumar,Das, Lalu,Akhter, Javed,Benestad, Rasmus E.,&Mezghani, Abdelkader.(2017).Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to Simulate Observed Rainfall Characteristics over the Western Himalayan Region.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(19). |
MLA | Meher, Jitendra Kumar,et al."Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to Simulate Observed Rainfall Characteristics over the Western Himalayan Region".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.19(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论