Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1 |
Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing | |
Mueller, B. L.1; Gillett, N. P.2; Monahan, A. H.1; Zwiers, F. W.3 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:19页码:7771-7787 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953-2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas-induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularized optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model-simulated climate response patterns (i.e., fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse gas, natural, and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953-2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse gas-induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging nonstationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations. |
英文关键词 | Arctic Sea ice Aerosols Climate change Climate models Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000441381000002 |
WOS关键词 | NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CMIP5 SIMULATIONS ; PART I ; EXTENT ; COVER ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20663 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC, Canada; 2.Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada; 3.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mueller, B. L.,Gillett, N. P.,Monahan, A. H.,et al. Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(19):7771-7787. |
APA | Mueller, B. L.,Gillett, N. P.,Monahan, A. H.,&Zwiers, F. W..(2018).Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(19),7771-7787. |
MLA | Mueller, B. L.,et al."Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.19(2018):7771-7787. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论