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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0174.1 |
Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity | |
Thual, Sulian1; Majda, Andrew; Chen, Nan | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Recently, a simple stochastic dynamical model was developed that automatically captures the diversity and intermittency of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Nino events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Nino regions, the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Nino and the central Pacific El Nino and La Nina show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423492500015 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PART I ; ENSO ; THERMOCLINE ; FEEDBACKS ; OSCILLATION ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20679 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NYU, Dept Math, New York, NY 10003 USA; 2.NYU, Ctr Atmosphere Ocean Sci, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thual, Sulian,Majda, Andrew,Chen, Nan. Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(24). |
APA | Thual, Sulian,Majda, Andrew,&Chen, Nan.(2017).Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(24). |
MLA | Thual, Sulian,et al."Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.24(2017). |
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