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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0174.1
Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity
Thual, Sulian1; Majda, Andrew; Chen, Nan
2017-12-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:24
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Recently, a simple stochastic dynamical model was developed that automatically captures the diversity and intermittency of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Nino events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Nino regions, the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Nino and the central Pacific El Nino and La Nina show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000423492500015
WOS关键词WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PART I ; ENSO ; THERMOCLINE ; FEEDBACKS ; OSCILLATION ; CIRCULATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20679
专题气候变化
作者单位1.NYU, Dept Math, New York, NY 10003 USA;
2.NYU, Ctr Atmosphere Ocean Sci, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA
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GB/T 7714
Thual, Sulian,Majda, Andrew,Chen, Nan. Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(24).
APA Thual, Sulian,Majda, Andrew,&Chen, Nan.(2017).Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(24).
MLA Thual, Sulian,et al."Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Nino Diversity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.24(2017).
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