Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0256.1 |
Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Simulations with Very High Carbon Dioxide Levels | |
Korty, Robert L.1; Emanuel, Kerry A.2; Huber, Matthew3,4; Zamora, Ryan A.1,5 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A method to simulate thousands of tropical cyclones using output from a global climate model is applied to simulations that span very high surface temperatures forced with high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). The climatology of the storms downscaled from a simulation with modern-day conditions is compared to that of events downscaled from two other simulations featuring 8 and 32 times preindustrial-era levels of CO2. Storms shift poleward with warming: genesis locations and track densities increase in subtropical and higher latitudes, and power dissipation increases poleward of 20 degrees S and 30 degrees N. The average latitude at which storms reach their maximum intensity shifts poleward by more than 1.5 degrees latitude in the 8 x CO2 experiment and by more than 7 degrees latitude in the 32 c CO2 case. Storms live longer and are more numerous in both of the warmer climates. These increases come largely from an expansion of the area featuring favorable conditions into subtropics and midlatitudes, with some regions of the Arctic having the thermodynamic conditions necessary to sustain systems in the hottest case. Storms of category 5 intensity are 52% more frequent in the 8 x CO2 experiment but 40% less so in the 32 x CO2 case, largely owing to a substantial decline in low-latitude activity associated with increases in a normalized measure of wind shear called the ventilation index. Changes in genesis and track densities align well with differences in the ventilation index, and environmental conditions become substantially more favorable poleward of about 20 degrees latitude in the warmer climates. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000391856300014 |
WOS关键词 | RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM ; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM ; UPPER-OCEAN ; CLIMATE MODELS ; POTENTIAL INTENSITY ; HURRICANE INTENSITY ; HADLEY CIRCULATION ; GENESIS FACTORS ; WARM CLIMATES ; DEPENDENCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20751 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX USA; 2.MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 3.Purdue Univ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA; 4.Univ New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 USA; 5.Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Korty, Robert L.,Emanuel, Kerry A.,Huber, Matthew,et al. Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Simulations with Very High Carbon Dioxide Levels[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2). |
APA | Korty, Robert L.,Emanuel, Kerry A.,Huber, Matthew,&Zamora, Ryan A..(2017).Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Simulations with Very High Carbon Dioxide Levels.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2). |
MLA | Korty, Robert L.,et al."Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Simulations with Very High Carbon Dioxide Levels".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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