Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1 |
Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis | |
Rodrigues, David1; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen1; Messori, Gabriele2,3; Yiou, Pascal1; Robin, Yoann1; Faranda, Davide1,4 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:15页码:6097-6111 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Sweden; England |
英文摘要 | It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability of climate models to capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in the context of a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, the robustness of the changes simulated in these patterns over time. Here we approach this problem from an innovative point of view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the CMIP5 historical simulations (1851-2000) in terms of two instantaneous metrics: local dimension of the attractor and stability of phase-space trajectories. We then use these metrics to compare the models to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c) over the same historical period. The comparison suggests that (i) most models capture to some degree the median attractor properties, and models with finer grids generally perform better; (ii) in most models the extremes in the dynamical systems metrics match large-scale patterns similar to those found in the reanalysis; (iii) changes in the attractor properties observed for the ensemble-mean 20CRv2c are artifacts resulting from inhomogeneities in the standard deviation of the ensemble over time; and (iv) the long-term trends in local dimension observed among the 56 members of the 20CR ensemble have the same sign as those observed in the CMIP5 multimodel mean, although the multimodel trend is much weaker. |
英文关键词 | Atmospheric circulation Nonlinear dynamics Statistical techniques Climate models Reanalysis data |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437092900006 |
WOS关键词 | HITTING TIME STATISTICS ; EXTREME-VALUE THEORY ; 20TH-CENTURY REANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20759 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UMR 8212, CEA,CNRS,UVSQ,IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 2.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden; 3.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden; 4.London Math Lab, London, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rodrigues, David,Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen,Messori, Gabriele,et al. Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(15):6097-6111. |
APA | Rodrigues, David,Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen,Messori, Gabriele,Yiou, Pascal,Robin, Yoann,&Faranda, Davide.(2018).Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(15),6097-6111. |
MLA | Rodrigues, David,et al."Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.15(2018):6097-6111. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论