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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0110.1 |
Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change | |
Slangen, Aimee B. A.1,2; Meyssignac, Benoit3; Agosta, Cecile4; Champollion, Nicolas5; Church, John A.6; Fettweis, Xavier4; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.7; Marzeion, Ben8; Melet, Angelique9; Palmer, Matthew D.10; Richter, Kristin11; Roberts, Christopher D.10,12; Spada, Giorgio13 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:21 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; France; Belgium; Switzerland; Australia; Germany; England; Austria; Italy |
英文摘要 | Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of theWorld ClimateResearch Programme's ClimateModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is compared to observational estimates for the period 1900-2015. Observed and simulated individual contributions to GMSL change (thermal expansion, glacier mass change, ice sheet mass change, landwater storage change) are analyzed and compared to observed GMSL change over the period 1900-2007 using tide gauge reconstructions, and over the period 1993-2015 using satellite altimetry estimates. The model-simulated contributions explain 50% +/- 30% (uncertainties 1.65 sigma unless indicated otherwise) of the mean observed change from 1901-20 to 1988-2007. Based on attributable biases between observations and models, a number of corrections are proposed, which result in an improved explanation of 75% +/- 38% of the observed change. For the satellite era (from 1993-97 to 2011-15) an improved budget closure of 102% +/- 33% is found (105% +/- 35% when including the proposed bias corrections). Simulated decadal trends increase over the twentieth century, both in the thermal expansion and the combinedmass contributions (glaciers, ice sheets, and landwater storage). The mass components explain the majority of sea level rise over the twentieth century, but the thermal expansion has increasingly contributed to sea level rise, starting from 1910 onward and in 2015 accounting for 46% of the total simulated sea level change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414646000007 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ; ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE MODEL ; OCEAN ; GREENLAND ; CMIP5 ; ACCELERATION ; PROJECTIONS ; REANALYSIS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20773 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res NIOZ, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands; 2.Univ Utrecht, Yerseke, Netherlands; 3.Univ Toulouse, CNRS, LEGOS, CNES,IRD,UPS, Toulouse, France; 4.Univ Liege, Dept Geog, Liege, Belgium; 5.Int Space Sci Inst, Bern, Switzerland; 6.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 7.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands; 8.Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany; 9.Mercator Ocean, Ramonville St Agne, France; 10.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 11.Univ Innsbruck, Inst Atmospher & Cryospher Sci, Innsbruck, Austria; 12.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield, England; 13.Urbino Univ Carlo Bo, Dipartimento Sci Pure & Applicate, Urbino, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Slangen, Aimee B. A.,Meyssignac, Benoit,Agosta, Cecile,et al. Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(21). |
APA | Slangen, Aimee B. A..,Meyssignac, Benoit.,Agosta, Cecile.,Champollion, Nicolas.,Church, John A..,...&Spada, Giorgio.(2017).Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(21). |
MLA | Slangen, Aimee B. A.,et al."Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.21(2017). |
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