Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0838.1 |
Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950-2016 | |
Herrera, Dimitris; Ault, Toby | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of drought in the Caribbean. Understanding drought variability and its trends is therefore critical for improving resiliency and adaptation capacity of this region, as well as for assessing the dynamics and predictability of regional hydroclimate across spatial and temporal scales. This work introduces a first of its kind high-resolution drought dataset for the Caribbean region from 1950 to 2016, using monthly estimates of the "self calibrating'' Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), with the physically based Penman-Monteith approximation for the potential evapotranspiration. Statistically downscaled data products, including reanalysis, are employed to establish an historical baseline for characterizing drought from 1950 to the near present. Since 1950, the Caribbean has been affected by severe droughts in 1974-77, 1997/98, 2009/10, and 2013-16. Results indicate that the 2013-16 drought is the most severe event during the time interval analyzed in this work, which agrees with qualitative reports of many meteorological institutions across the Caribbean. Linear trends in the scPDSI show a significant drying in the study area, averaging an scPDSI change of -0.09 decade(-1) (p<0.05). However, this trend is not homogenous, and significant trends toward wetter conditions in portions of the study area were observed. Results further indicate a strong influence of both tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans in modulating drought variability across the study domain. Finally, this effort is the first step in building high-resolution drought products for the Caribbean to be updated regularly, with the purpose of drought monitoring and eventually seasonal drought prediction. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411436700011 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE SURFACES ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; SEVERITY INDEX ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; WATER ; STREAMFLOW ; PACIFIC ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20775 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Herrera, Dimitris,Ault, Toby. Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950-2016[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(19). |
APA | Herrera, Dimitris,&Ault, Toby.(2017).Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950-2016.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(19). |
MLA | Herrera, Dimitris,et al."Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950-2016".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.19(2017). |
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