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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0487.1 |
Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model | |
Zhang, Wei1,2,3,5; Vecchi, Gabriel A.1,2; Villarini, Gabriele3; Murakami, Hiroyuki1,2; Gudgel, Richard1; Yang, Xiaosong1,4 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study attempts to improve the prediction of western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia (EA) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using modes of large-scale climate variability [e.g., the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (NASST)] as predictors in a hybrid statistical-dynamical scheme, based on dynamical model forecasts with the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). Overall, the predictive skill of the hybrid model for the WNP TC frequency increases from lead month 5 (initialized in January) to lead month 0 (initialized in June) in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The hybrid model outperforms FLOR-FA in predicting WNPTC frequency for all lead months. The predictive skill of the hybrid model improves as the forecast lead time decreases, with values of the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.56 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.69 in June. The hybrid models for landfalling TCs over the entire East Asian (EEA) coast and its three subregions [i.e., southern EA (SEA), middle EA (MEA), and northern EA (NEA)] dramatically outperform FLOR-FA. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed TC landfall over SEA increases from 0.52 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.64 in June. The hybrid models substantially reduce the RMSE of landfalling TCs over SEA and EEA compared with FLOR-FA. This study suggests that the PMM and NASST/AMM can be used to improve statistical/hybrid forecast models for the frequencies of WNP or East Asia landfalling TCs. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395765900020 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN OCEAN SST ; EL-NINO ; HURRICANE SEASON ; PART I ; ATLANTIC ; PREDICTION ; FREQUENCY ; CHINA ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20784 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA USA; 4.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO USA; 5.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster Minist Educ, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, Nanjing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Wei,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,Villarini, Gabriele,et al. Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(6). |
APA | Zhang, Wei,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,Villarini, Gabriele,Murakami, Hiroyuki,Gudgel, Richard,&Yang, Xiaosong.(2017).Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(6). |
MLA | Zhang, Wei,et al."Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.6(2017). |
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