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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0780.1 |
Performance of Pattern-Scaled Climate Projections under High-End Warming. Part I: Surface Air Temperature over Land | |
Osborn, Timothy J.1; Wallace, Craig J.1; Lowe, Jason A.2,3; Bernie, Dan2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:14页码:5667-5680 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Pattern scaling is widely used to create climate change projections to investigate future impacts. We consider the performance of pattern scaling for emulating the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model (GCM) paying particular attention to high end warming scenarios and to different choices of GCM simulations used to diagnose the climate change patterns. We demonstrate that evaluating pattern-scaling projections by comparing them with GCM simulations containing unforced variability gives a significantly less favorable view of the actual performance of pattern scaling. Using a four-member initial-condition ensemble of HadGEM2-ES simulations, we infer that the root-mean-square errors of pattern-scaled monthly temperature changes over land are less than 0.25 degrees C for global warming up to approximately 3.5 degrees C. Some regional errors are larger than this and, for this GCM, there is a tendency for pattern scaling to underestimate warming over land. For warming above 3.5 degrees C, the pattern-scaled projection errors grow but remain small relative to the climate change signal. We investigate whether patterns diagnosed by pooling GCM experiments from several scenarios are suitable for emulating the GCM under a high-end warming scenario. For global warming up to 3.5 degrees C, pattern scaling using this pooled pattern closely emulates GCM simulations. For warming beyond 3.5 degrees C, pattern-scaling performance is notably improved by using patterns diagnosed only from the high-forcing representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Assessments of climate change impacts under high-end warming using pattern-scaling projections could be improved by using change patterns diagnosed from pooled scenarios for projections up to 3.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and patterns diagnosed from only strong forcing simulations for projecting beyond that. Similar findings are obtained for five other GCMs. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Temperature Statistical techniques Climate models Anthropogenic effects |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435926900003 |
WOS关键词 | IMPACTS ; CMIP5 ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20875 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Leeds, Priestley Ctr, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Osborn, Timothy J.,Wallace, Craig J.,Lowe, Jason A.,et al. Performance of Pattern-Scaled Climate Projections under High-End Warming. Part I: Surface Air Temperature over Land[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5667-5680. |
APA | Osborn, Timothy J.,Wallace, Craig J.,Lowe, Jason A.,&Bernie, Dan.(2018).Performance of Pattern-Scaled Climate Projections under High-End Warming. Part I: Surface Air Temperature over Land.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5667-5680. |
MLA | Osborn, Timothy J.,et al."Performance of Pattern-Scaled Climate Projections under High-End Warming. Part I: Surface Air Temperature over Land".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5667-5680. |
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