GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0863.1
Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data
Beaulieu, Claudie1,2; Killick, Rebecca3
2018-12-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:23页码:9519-9543
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; England
英文摘要

The detection of climate change and its attribution to the corresponding underlying processes is challenging because signals such as trends and shifts are superposed on variability arising from the memory within the climate system. Statistical methods used to characterize change in time series must be flexible enough to distinguish these components. Here we propose an approach tailored to distinguish these different modes of change by fitting a series of models and selecting the most suitable one according to an information criterion. The models involve combinations of a constant mean or a trend superposed to a background of white noise with or without autocorrelation to characterize the memory, and are able to detect multiple changepoints in each model configuration. Through a simulation study on synthetic time series, the approach is shown to be effective in distinguishing abrupt changes from trends and memory by identifying the true number and timing of abrupt changes when they are present. Furthermore, the proposed method is better performing than two commonly used approaches for the detection of abrupt changes in climate time series. Using this approach, the so-called hiatus in recent global mean surface warming fails to be detected as a shift in the rate of temperature rise but is instead consistent with steady increase since the 1960s/1970s. Our method also supports the hypothesis that the Pacific decadal oscillation behaves as a short-memory process rather than forced mean shifts as previously suggested. These examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach for change detection and for avoiding the most pervasive types of mistake in the detection of climate change.


英文关键词Changepoint analysis Regression analysis Time series Interannual variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000449463500002
WOS关键词SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS ; MAXIMAL T-TEST ; REGIME SHIFTS ; WARMING HIATUS ; DATA SERIES ; RED NOISE ; OCEAN ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; RECORDS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20948
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Ocean Sci Dept, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA;
2.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England;
3.Univ Lancaster, Dept Math & Stat, Lancaster, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Beaulieu, Claudie,Killick, Rebecca. Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(23):9519-9543.
APA Beaulieu, Claudie,&Killick, Rebecca.(2018).Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(23),9519-9543.
MLA Beaulieu, Claudie,et al."Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.23(2018):9519-9543.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Beaulieu, Claudie]的文章
[Killick, Rebecca]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Beaulieu, Claudie]的文章
[Killick, Rebecca]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Beaulieu, Claudie]的文章
[Killick, Rebecca]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。