Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0863.1 |
Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data | |
Beaulieu, Claudie1,2; Killick, Rebecca3 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:23页码:9519-9543 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | The detection of climate change and its attribution to the corresponding underlying processes is challenging because signals such as trends and shifts are superposed on variability arising from the memory within the climate system. Statistical methods used to characterize change in time series must be flexible enough to distinguish these components. Here we propose an approach tailored to distinguish these different modes of change by fitting a series of models and selecting the most suitable one according to an information criterion. The models involve combinations of a constant mean or a trend superposed to a background of white noise with or without autocorrelation to characterize the memory, and are able to detect multiple changepoints in each model configuration. Through a simulation study on synthetic time series, the approach is shown to be effective in distinguishing abrupt changes from trends and memory by identifying the true number and timing of abrupt changes when they are present. Furthermore, the proposed method is better performing than two commonly used approaches for the detection of abrupt changes in climate time series. Using this approach, the so-called hiatus in recent global mean surface warming fails to be detected as a shift in the rate of temperature rise but is instead consistent with steady increase since the 1960s/1970s. Our method also supports the hypothesis that the Pacific decadal oscillation behaves as a short-memory process rather than forced mean shifts as previously suggested. These examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach for change detection and for avoiding the most pervasive types of mistake in the detection of climate change. |
英文关键词 | Changepoint analysis Regression analysis Time series Interannual variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000449463500002 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS ; MAXIMAL T-TEST ; REGIME SHIFTS ; WARMING HIATUS ; DATA SERIES ; RED NOISE ; OCEAN ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; RECORDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20948 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Ocean Sci Dept, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA; 2.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England; 3.Univ Lancaster, Dept Math & Stat, Lancaster, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beaulieu, Claudie,Killick, Rebecca. Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(23):9519-9543. |
APA | Beaulieu, Claudie,&Killick, Rebecca.(2018).Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(23),9519-9543. |
MLA | Beaulieu, Claudie,et al."Distinguishing Trends and Shifts from Memory in Climate Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.23(2018):9519-9543. |
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