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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0311.1
Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?
Lazenby, Melissa J.1; Todd, Martin C.1; Chadwick, Robin2; Wang, Yi1
2018-06-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:12页码:4807-4826
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

Future projections of precipitation at regional scales are vital to inform climate change adaptation activities. Therefore, is it important to quantify projected changes and associated uncertainty, and understand model processes responsible. This paper addresses these challenges for southern Africa and the adjacent Indian Ocean focusing on the local wet season. Precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century indicate a pronounced dipole pattern in the CMIP5 multimodel mean. The dipole indicates future wetting (drying) to the north (south) of the climatological axis of maximum rainfall, implying a northward shift of the ITCZ and south Indian Ocean convergence zone that is not consistent with a simple wet get wetter pattern. This pattern is most pronounced in early austral summer, suggesting a later and shorter wet season over much of southern Africa. Using a decomposition method we determine physical mechanisms underlying this dipole pattern of projected change, and the associated intermodel uncertainty. The projected dipole pattern is largely associated with the dynamical component of change indicative of shifts in the location of convection. Over the Indian Ocean, this apparent northward shift in the ITCZ may reflect the response to changes in the north-south SST gradient over the Indian Ocean, consistent with a warmest get wetter mechanism. Over land subtropical drying is relatively robust, particularly in the early wet season. This has contributions from dynamical shifts in the location of convection, which may be related to regional SST structures in the southern Indian Ocean, and the thermodynamic decline in relative humidity. Implications for understanding and potentially constraining uncertainty in projections are discussed.


英文关键词Tropics Dynamics Precipitation Climate change Thermodynamics Climate models
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000433069000002
WOS关键词SEA WARMING CONTRAST ; SST DIPOLE EVENTS ; EL-NINO ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; CONVERGENCE ZONE ; CLIMATE ; RAINFALL ; CIRCULATION ; ROBUST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21083
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Sussex, Dept Geog, Brighton, E Sussex, England;
2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
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Lazenby, Melissa J.,Todd, Martin C.,Chadwick, Robin,et al. Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(12):4807-4826.
APA Lazenby, Melissa J.,Todd, Martin C.,Chadwick, Robin,&Wang, Yi.(2018).Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(12),4807-4826.
MLA Lazenby, Melissa J.,et al."Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.12(2018):4807-4826.
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