Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023055 |
Unsurprising Surprises: The Frequency of Record-breaking and Overthreshold Hydrological Extremes Under Spatial and Temporal Dependence | |
Serinaldi, Francesco1,2; Kilsby, Chris G.1,2 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:9页码:6460-6487 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Record-breaking (RB) events are the highest or lowest values assumed by a given variable, such as temperature and precipitation, since the beginning of the observation period. Research in hydroclimatic fluctuations and their link with this kind of extreme events recently renewed the interest in RB events. However, empirical analyses of RB events usually rely on statistical techniques based on too restrictive hypotheses such as independent and identically distributed (i/id) random variables or nongeneral numerical methods. In this study, we propose some exact distributions along with accurate approximations describing the occurrence probability of RB and peak-over-threshold (POT) events under general spatiotemporal dependence, which enable analyses based on more appropriate assumptions. We show that (i) the Poisson binomial distribution is the exact distribution of the number of RB events under i/id, (ii) equivalent binomial distributions are accurate approximations under i/id, (iii) beta-binomial distributions provide the exact distribution of POT occurrences under spatiotemporal dependence, and (iv) equivalent beta-binomial distributions provide accurate approximations for the distribution of RB occurrences under spatiotemporal dependence. To perform numerical validations, we also introduce a generator of spatially and temporally correlated binary processes, called BetaBitST. As examples of application, we study RB and POT occurrences for monthly precipitation and temperature over the conterminous United States and reanalyze Mauna Loa daily temperature data. Results show that accounting for spatiotemporal dependence yields strikingly different conclusions, making the observed frequencies of RB and POT events much less surprising than expected and calling into question previous results reported in the literature. |
英文关键词 | record-breaking values overthreshold values Poisson binomial and beta-binomial distributions spatiotemporal binary processes precipitation and temperature extremes in the United States Mauna Loa temperature records |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448088100037 |
WOS关键词 | BETA-BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION ; KENDALL TREND TEST ; LONG-MEMORY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; TESTS ; NONSTATIONARITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PROBABILITY ; ATTRIBUTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21200 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England; 2.Willis Res Network, London, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Serinaldi, Francesco,Kilsby, Chris G.. Unsurprising Surprises: The Frequency of Record-breaking and Overthreshold Hydrological Extremes Under Spatial and Temporal Dependence[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(9):6460-6487. |
APA | Serinaldi, Francesco,&Kilsby, Chris G..(2018).Unsurprising Surprises: The Frequency of Record-breaking and Overthreshold Hydrological Extremes Under Spatial and Temporal Dependence.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(9),6460-6487. |
MLA | Serinaldi, Francesco,et al."Unsurprising Surprises: The Frequency of Record-breaking and Overthreshold Hydrological Extremes Under Spatial and Temporal Dependence".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.9(2018):6460-6487. |
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