GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0016.1
Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls
Kolstad, Erik W.1; Arthun, Marius2,3
2018-10-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:20页码:8197-8210
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Norway
英文摘要

Arctic sea ice extent and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been shown to be skillful predictors of weather anomalies in the midlatitudes on the seasonal time scale. In particular, below-normal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in fall has sometimes preceded cold winters in parts of Eurasia. Here we explore the potential for predicting seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Europe from seasonal SST anomalies in the Nordic seas throughout the year. First, we show that fall SST anomalies not just in the Barents Sea but also in the Norwegian Sea have the potential to predict wintertime SAT anomalies in Europe. Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring are also significant predictors of European SAT anomalies in summer. Second, we demonstrate that the potential for prediction is sensitive to trends in the data. In particular, the lagged correlation between Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring and European SAT anomalies in summer is considerably higher for raw data than linearly detrended data, largely due to warming SST and SAT trends in recent decades. Third, we show that the potential for prediction has not been stationary in time. One key result is that, according to two twentieth-century reanalyses, the strength of the negative lagged correlation between Barents Sea SST anomalies in fall and European SAT anomalies in winter after 1979 is unprecedented since 1900.


英文关键词Teleconnections North Atlantic Oscillation Sea surface temperature Climate prediction Seasonal forecasting Interannual variability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000443673000002
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; ICE ; FORECASTS ; VARIABILITY ; REANALYSIS ; WINTERS ; IMPACT ; SKILL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21237
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway;
2.Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway;
3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway
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Kolstad, Erik W.,Arthun, Marius. Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(20):8197-8210.
APA Kolstad, Erik W.,&Arthun, Marius.(2018).Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(20),8197-8210.
MLA Kolstad, Erik W.,et al."Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.20(2018):8197-8210.
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