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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0682.1 |
A Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble | |
Wagman, Benjamin M.1,2; Jackson, Charles S.1 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:18页码:7515-7532 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A calibrated single-model ensemble (SME) derived from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1, is used to test two hypothesized emergent constraints on cloud feedback and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The Fasullo and Trenberth relative humidity (RH) metric and the Sherwood et al. lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMI) metric are computed for the present-day climate of the SME, and the relationships between the metrics, ECS, and cloud and other climate feedbacks are examined. The tropical convergence zone relative humidity (RHM) and the parameterized lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMIS) are positively correlated to ECS, and each is associated with a different spatial pattern of tropical shortwave cloud feedback in the SME. However, neither of those metrics is linked to the type of cloud response hypothesized by its authors. The resolved lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMID) is positively correlated to ECS for a subset of the SME having LTMID over a threshold value. LTMI and the RH for the dry, descending branch of the Hadley cell (RHD) narrow and shift upward the posterior estimates of ECS in the SME, but the SME bias in RHD and concerns over poorly understood physical mechanisms suggest the narrowing could be spurious for both constraints. While calibrated SME results may not generalize to multimodel ensembles, they can enhance the process understanding of emergent constraints and serve as out-of-sample tests of robustness. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Climate sensitivity Bayesian methods Climate prediction Ensembles Probability forecasts models distribution |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440897600001 |
WOS关键词 | COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION ; PARAMETER ; QUANTIFICATION ; SIMULATIONS ; CONVECTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21238 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Texas Austin, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX 78712 USA; 2.Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geol Sci, Jackson Sch Geosci, Austin, TX 78712 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wagman, Benjamin M.,Jackson, Charles S.. A Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(18):7515-7532. |
APA | Wagman, Benjamin M.,&Jackson, Charles S..(2018).A Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(18),7515-7532. |
MLA | Wagman, Benjamin M.,et al."A Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.18(2018):7515-7532. |
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