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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0073.1
Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)
Zhang, Wei1; Villarini, Gabriele1,3; Slater, Louise1,2; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Bradley, A. Allen1
2017-11-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:22
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; England
英文摘要

This study assesses the forecast skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting Nino-3/-3.4 indices and improves their skill using Bayesian updating (BU). The forecast skill that is obtained using the ensemblemean ofNMME (NMME-EM) shows a strong dependence on lead (initial) month and target month and is quite promising in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), standard deviation ratio (SDRatio), and probabilistic Brier skill score, especially at short leadmonths. However, the skill decreases in target months from late spring to summer owing to the spring predictability barrier. When BU is applied to eight NMME models (BU-Model), the forecasts tend to outperform NMME-EM in predicting Nino-3/-3.4 in terms of correlation, RMSE, and SDRatio. For Nino-3.4, the BU-Model outperforms NMME-EM forecasts for almost all leads (1-12; particularly for short leads) and target months (from January to December). However, for Nino-3, the BU-Model does not outperform NMME-EM forecasts for leads 7-11 and target months from June to October in terms of correlation and RMSE. Last, the authors test further potential improvements by preselecting "good'' models (BU-Model-0.3) and by using principal component analysis to remove the multicollinearity among models, but these additional methodologies do not outperform the BU-Model, which produces the best forecasts of Nino-3/-3.4 for the 2015/16 El Nino event.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000416488200009
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; COUPLED CLIMATE MODEL ; EL-NINO ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; PACIFIC-OCEAN ; PREDICTION ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEM ; SKILL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21252
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA USA;
2.Loughborough Univ Technol, Dept Geog, Loughborough, Leics, England;
3.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Slater, Louise,et al. Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(22).
APA Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Slater, Louise,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,&Bradley, A. Allen.(2017).Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(22).
MLA Zhang, Wei,et al."Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.22(2017).
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