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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0073.1 |
Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) | |
Zhang, Wei1; Villarini, Gabriele1,3; Slater, Louise1,2; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Bradley, A. Allen1 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:22 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | This study assesses the forecast skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting Nino-3/-3.4 indices and improves their skill using Bayesian updating (BU). The forecast skill that is obtained using the ensemblemean ofNMME (NMME-EM) shows a strong dependence on lead (initial) month and target month and is quite promising in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), standard deviation ratio (SDRatio), and probabilistic Brier skill score, especially at short leadmonths. However, the skill decreases in target months from late spring to summer owing to the spring predictability barrier. When BU is applied to eight NMME models (BU-Model), the forecasts tend to outperform NMME-EM in predicting Nino-3/-3.4 in terms of correlation, RMSE, and SDRatio. For Nino-3.4, the BU-Model outperforms NMME-EM forecasts for almost all leads (1-12; particularly for short leads) and target months (from January to December). However, for Nino-3, the BU-Model does not outperform NMME-EM forecasts for leads 7-11 and target months from June to October in terms of correlation and RMSE. Last, the authors test further potential improvements by preselecting "good'' models (BU-Model-0.3) and by using principal component analysis to remove the multicollinearity among models, but these additional methodologies do not outperform the BU-Model, which produces the best forecasts of Nino-3/-3.4 for the 2015/16 El Nino event. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416488200009 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; COUPLED CLIMATE MODEL ; EL-NINO ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; PACIFIC-OCEAN ; PREDICTION ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEM ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21252 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA USA; 2.Loughborough Univ Technol, Dept Geog, Loughborough, Leics, England; 3.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Slater, Louise,et al. Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(22). |
APA | Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Slater, Louise,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,&Bradley, A. Allen.(2017).Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(22). |
MLA | Zhang, Wei,et al."Improved ENSO Forecasting Using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.22(2017). |
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