Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0701.1 |
Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models | |
Quinn, Kevin M.; Neelin, J. David | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Distributions of precipitation cluster power (latent heat release rate integrated over contiguous precipitating pixels) are examined in 1 degrees-2 degrees-resolution members of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. These approximately reproduce the power-law range and large event cutoff seen in observations and the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at 0.25 degrees-0.5 degrees in Part I. Under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global warming scenario, the change in the probability of the most intense storm clusters appears in all models and is consistent with HiRAM output, increasing by up to an order of magnitude relative to historical climate. For the three models in the ensemble with continuous time series of high-resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful storm clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. Asimilar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II re-analysis and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Imager/Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) rain-rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high power cluster probabilities at this time. However, the results suggest that maintaining a consistent set of overlapping satellite instrumentation with improvements to SSM/I-SSMIS rain-rate retrieval intercalibrations would be useful for detecting trends in this important tail behavior within the next couple of decades. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411438000002 |
WOS关键词 | SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER/SOUNDER ; MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE ; ENSEMBLE ; INCREASES ; ALGORITHM ; SSM/I |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21253 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Quinn, Kevin M.,Neelin, J. David. Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(20). |
APA | Quinn, Kevin M.,&Neelin, J. David.(2017).Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(20). |
MLA | Quinn, Kevin M.,et al."Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.20(2017). |
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