Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1 |
Toward a New Estimate of "Time of Emergence'' of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble | |
Lehner, Flavio1; Deser, Clara1; Terray, Laurent2 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France |
英文摘要 | Time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change is a crucial metric in risk assessments surrounding future climate predictions. However, internal climate variability impairs the ability to make accurate statements about when climate change emerges from a background reference state. None of the existing efforts to explore uncertainties in time of emergence has explicitly explored the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability. Here a dynamical adjustment method based on constructed circulation analogs is used to provide new estimates of time of emergence of anthropogenic warming over North America and Europe from both a local and spatially aggregated perspective. After removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability, the emergence of anthropogenic warming occurs on average two decades earlier in winter and one decade earlier in summer over North America and Europe. Dynamical adjustment increases the percentage of land area over which warming has emerged by about 30% and 15% in winter (10% and 5% in summer) over North America and Europe, respectively. Using a large ensemble of simulations with a climate model, evidence is provided that thermodynamic factors related to variations in snow cover, sea ice, and soil moisture are important drivers of the remaining uncertainty in time of emergence. Model biases in variability lead to an underestimation (13%-22% over North America and <5% over Europe) of the land fraction emerged by 2010 in summer, indicating that the forced warming signal emerges earlier in observations than suggested by models. The results herein illustrate opportunities for future detection and attribution studies to improve physical understanding by explicitly accounting for internal atmospheric circulation variability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411436700008 |
WOS关键词 | AIR-TEMPERATURE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TRENDS ; REANALYSIS ; METHODOLOGY ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; MECHANISMS ; EXTREMES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21256 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Univ Toulouse, CERFACS CNRS, CECI, Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lehner, Flavio,Deser, Clara,Terray, Laurent. Toward a New Estimate of "Time of Emergence'' of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(19). |
APA | Lehner, Flavio,Deser, Clara,&Terray, Laurent.(2017).Toward a New Estimate of "Time of Emergence'' of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(19). |
MLA | Lehner, Flavio,et al."Toward a New Estimate of "Time of Emergence'' of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.19(2017). |
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