Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR022852 |
Responses of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows to Scenarios of Climate Change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed | |
Knowles, N.1; Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.1; Pierce, D. W.2; Cayan, D. R.2 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:10页码:7631-7650 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Projections of meteorology downscaled from global climate model runs were used to drive a model of unimpaired hydrology of the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed, which in turn drove models of operational responses and managed flows. Twenty daily climate change scenarios for water years 1980-2099 were evaluated with the goal of producing inflow boundary conditions for a watershed sediment model and for a hydrodynamical model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. The resulting time series of meteorology, snowpack, unimpaired flow, reservoir storage, and managed flow were analyzed for century-scale trends. In the Sacramento basin, which dominates Bay-Delta inflows, all 20 scenarios portrayed warming trends (with a mean of 4.1 degrees C) and most had precipitation increases (with a mean increase of 9%). Sacramento basin snowpack water equivalent declined sharply (by 89%), which was associated with a major shift toward earlier unimpaired runoff timing (33% more flow arriving prior to 1 April). Sacramento basin reservoirs showed large declines in end-of-September storage. Water-year averaged outflows increased for most scenarios for both unimpaired and impaired flows, and frequency of extremely high daily unimpaired and impaired flows increased (increases of 175% and 170%, respectively). Managed Delta inflows were projected to experience large increases in the wet season and declines in the dry season. Changes in management strategy and infrastructure can mitigate some of these changes, though to what degree is uncertain. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450726000029 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION CHANGES ; ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; UNITED-STATES ; CALIFORNIA ; MODEL ; RESOURCES ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21280 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.US Geol Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA; 2.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Knowles, N.,Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.,Pierce, D. W.,et al. Responses of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows to Scenarios of Climate Change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(10):7631-7650. |
APA | Knowles, N.,Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.,Pierce, D. W.,&Cayan, D. R..(2018).Responses of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows to Scenarios of Climate Change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(10),7631-7650. |
MLA | Knowles, N.,et al."Responses of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows to Scenarios of Climate Change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.10(2018):7631-7650. |
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