Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR022114 |
A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand | |
Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:3页码:2057-2077 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Singapore |
英文摘要 | Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought recordthe Monsoon Asia Drought Atlasto reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment historye.g., regime-like behaviorthereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430364900036 |
WOS关键词 | RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ; VARIABILITY ; MONSOON ; FLOOD ; PACIFIC ; SEASON ; ENSO ; IDENTIFICATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21527 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Singapore Univ Technol & Design, Pillar Engn Syst & Design, Singapore, Singapore |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nguyen, Hung T. T.,Galelli, Stefano. A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(3):2057-2077. |
APA | Nguyen, Hung T. T.,&Galelli, Stefano.(2018).A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(3),2057-2077. |
MLA | Nguyen, Hung T. T.,et al."A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.3(2018):2057-2077. |
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