Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2017WR021803 |
Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty | |
Erfani, Tohid1; Pachos, Kevis1; Harou, Julien J.1,2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:7页码:5069-5087 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Planning water supply infrastructure includes identifying interventions that cost-effectively secure an acceptably reliable water supply. Climate change is a source of uncertainty for water supply developments as its impact on source yields is uncertain. Adaptability to changing future conditions is increasingly viewed as a valuable design principle of strategic water planning. Because present decisions impact a system's ability to adapt to future needs, flexibility in activating, delaying, and replacing engineering projects should be considered in least-cost water supply intervention scheduling. This is a principle of Real Options Analysis, which this paper applies to least-cost capacity expansion scheduling via multistage stochastic mathematical programming. We apply the proposed model to a real-world utility with many investment decision stages using a generalized scenario tree construction algorithm to efficiently approximate the probabilistic uncertainty. To evaluate the implementation of Real Options Analysis, the use of two metrics is proposed: the value of the stochastic solution and the expected value of perfect information that quantify the value of adopting adaptive and flexible plans, respectively. An application to London's water system demonstrates the generalized approach. The investment decisions results are a mixture of long-term and contingency schemes that are optimally chosen considering different futures. The value of the stochastic solution shows that by considering uncertainty, adaptive investment decisions avoid 100 pound million net present value (NPV) cost, 15% of the total NPV. The expected value of perfect information demonstrates that optimal delay and early decisions have 50 pound million NPV, 6% of total NPV. Sensitivity of results to the characteristics of the scenario tree and uncertainty set is assessed. |
英文关键词 | flexibility adaptive planning decision tree uncertainty optimization capacity expansion |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442502100050 |
WOS关键词 | ROBUST DECISION-MAKING ; INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS ; DEEP UNCERTAINTY ; POLICY PATHWAYS ; TRADE-OFFS ; OPTIMIZATION ; RISK ; ADAPTATION ; MANAGEMENT ; ENGLAND |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21758 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.UCL, Dept Civil Environm & Geomat Engn, London, England; 2.Univ Manchester, Sch Mech Aerosp & Civil Engn, Manchester, Lancs, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erfani, Tohid,Pachos, Kevis,Harou, Julien J.. Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(7):5069-5087. |
APA | Erfani, Tohid,Pachos, Kevis,&Harou, Julien J..(2018).Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(7),5069-5087. |
MLA | Erfani, Tohid,et al."Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.7(2018):5069-5087. |
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