GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2016WR019704
The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics
van der Spek, Joanne E.; Bakker, Mark
2017-03-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2017
卷号53期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands
英文摘要

The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on the predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics is investigated. Studied series are from deltaic regions with predominantly shallow groundwater tables in a temperate maritime climate where heads vary due to precipitation and evaporation. Response times vary over a wide range from approximate to 60 to approximate to 1200 days. A Transfer Function-Noise model is calibrated with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to both synthetic series and measured series of heads. The model fit and uncertainty are evaluated for various calibration periods and observation frequencies. It is often assumed that the required length of the calibration period is related to the response time of the system. In this study, no strong relationship was observed. Results indicate, however, that the required length of the calibration period is related to the decay time of the noise. Furthermore, the length of the calibration period was much more important than the total number of observations. For the measured series, the credible intervals could commonly be reduced to approximate to 10% of the measured head range and the prediction intervals to approximate to 50% of the measured head range with calibration periods of 20 years with approximately two observations per month.


英文关键词time series analysis calibration period observation frequency uncertainty
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000400160500031
WOS关键词RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION ; HEAD FLUCTUATIONS ; PARAMETERS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
被引频次:15[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21786
专题资源环境科学
作者单位Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Water Resources Sect, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
van der Spek, Joanne E.,Bakker, Mark. The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(3).
APA van der Spek, Joanne E.,&Bakker, Mark.(2017).The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(3).
MLA van der Spek, Joanne E.,et al."The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.3(2017).
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