Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2017WR021731 |
Linear-Circular Statistical Modeling of Lake Ice-Out Dates | |
Beyene, Mussie T.1,2; Jain, Shaleen1,2,3; Gupta, Ramesh C.4 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:10页码:7841-7858 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Over the past few decades, lake ice phenology in northern temperate lakes has exhibited increased interannual variability. The resulting increase in the incidence of unusually early spring lake ice-out dates has the potential to affect stability, health, and function of the lake ecosystems. Characterizing the dependency of spring lake ice-out date to winter and/or spring climate variables offers foreknowledge on the annual lake ice cover season, as the spring ice-out date is an integrated response to prevailing weather/climate conditions during winter and spring. Here a circular regression framework is presented where ice-out date regression models, conditioned on a suite of predictor winter and/or spring climate variables (i.e., degree days and snowfall), are developed for 12 Maine lakes to determine the relative import of winter and spring meteorological conditions on year-to-year variability of ice-out dates in Maine lakes. In the circular regression models, ice-out dates are expressed as points on a unit circle instead of real line, as it preserves the periodicity and order of time-of-day variables independent of the choice of reference point. Results show that (a) the magnitude and variance of seasonal spring temperatures explain more than half of the total variability in spring ice-out date for Maine lakes, (b) the modulating efficacy of spring snowfall on the timing of spring ice-out dates is the strongest in northern interior Maine lakes, (c) the role of winter degree days in determining the ice-out dates in Maine lakes is significant across all climate regions, and (d) the effect of winter snowfall on ice-out dates is significant in coastal Maine lakes. Diagnostics suggest that there are other climatic and nonclimatic variables that produce shifts in the lake ice-out dates. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450726000039 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21884 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Maine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 2.Univ Maine, Mitchell Ctr Sustainabil Solut, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 3.Univ Maine, Climate Change Inst, Orono, ME USA; 4.Univ Maine, Dept Math & Stat, Orono, ME USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beyene, Mussie T.,Jain, Shaleen,Gupta, Ramesh C.. Linear-Circular Statistical Modeling of Lake Ice-Out Dates[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(10):7841-7858. |
APA | Beyene, Mussie T.,Jain, Shaleen,&Gupta, Ramesh C..(2018).Linear-Circular Statistical Modeling of Lake Ice-Out Dates.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(10),7841-7858. |
MLA | Beyene, Mussie T.,et al."Linear-Circular Statistical Modeling of Lake Ice-Out Dates".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.10(2018):7841-7858. |
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