Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023452 |
Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework | |
Graham, Neal T.1,2,3; Davies, Evan G. R.4; Hejazi, Mohamad I.2,3; Calvin, Katherine2,3; Kim, Son H.2; Helinski, Lauren5; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R.1,2,3; Clarke, Leon2; Kyle, Page2; Patel, Pralit2; Wise, Marshall A.2; Vernon, Chris R.6 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:9页码:6423-6440 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; therefore, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This study has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs and then applied the resulting scenarios to an integrated assessment model to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3,560 to 6,600 km(3). The results show that (1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios, (2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values, (3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies, and (4) nonwater sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands. |
英文关键词 | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways water demand GCAM water constraints |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448088100035 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RESOURCES ; DEMAND ; WORLD ; AVAILABILITY ; ELECTRICITY ; MITIGATION ; SCENARIOS ; SCARCITY ; FOOD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21885 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 4.Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB, Canada; 5.Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 6.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Graham, Neal T.,Davies, Evan G. R.,Hejazi, Mohamad I.,et al. Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(9):6423-6440. |
APA | Graham, Neal T..,Davies, Evan G. R..,Hejazi, Mohamad I..,Calvin, Katherine.,Kim, Son H..,...&Vernon, Chris R..(2018).Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(9),6423-6440. |
MLA | Graham, Neal T.,et al."Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.9(2018):6423-6440. |
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