资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Newly developed approaches based on satellite altimetry and gravity measurements provide promising results on glacier dynamics in the Pamir-Himalaya but cannot resolve short-term natural variability at regional and finer scale. We contribute to the ongoing debate by upscaling a hydrological model that we calibrated for the central Pamir. The model resolves the spatiotemporal variability in runoff over the entire catchment domain with high efficiency. We provide relevant information about individual components of the hydrological cycle and quantify short-term hydrological variability. For validation, we compare the modeled total water storages (TWS) with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data with a very good agreement where GRACE uncertainties are low. The approach exemplifies the potential of GRACE for validating even regional scale hydrological applications in remote and hard to access mountain regions. We use modeled time series of individual hydrological components to characterize the effect of climate variability on the hydrological cycle. We demonstrate that glaciers play a twofold role by providing roughly 35% of the annual runoff of the Panj River basin and by effectively buffering runoff both during very wet and very dry years. The modeled glacier mass balance (GMB) of -0.52 m w.e. yr(-1) (2002-2013) for the entire catchment suggests significant reduction of most Pamiri glaciers by the end of this century. The loss of glaciers and their buffer functionality in wet and dry years could not only result in reduced water availability and increase the regional instability, but also increase flood and drought hazards.

Plain Language Summary Glaciers store large amounts of water in the form of ice. They grow and shrink dominantly in response to climatic conditions. In Central Asia, where rivers originate in the high mountains, glaciers are an important source for sustainable water availability. Thus, understanding the link between climate, hydrology, and glacier evolution is fundamental. Some instruments mounted on satellites are capable of monitoring glaciers. However, the potential of these sensors is limited by technical constraints that will affect the availability and precision of the products. In order to overcome these shortcomings and investigate glacier dynamics, we use a numerical model that represents the relevant processes of the hydrological cycle with a very fine spatial and temporal resolution. We validate model results with snow cover observations and measurements of the total amount of water stored in the region. We demonstrate that this approach is valid and could facilitate studies in other cold climate regions. Our results show that glaciers buffer extreme weather conditions to provide sustainable river flow. This functionality is put in jeopardy due to the currently observed glacier retreat, in the Pamir Mountains.