Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0619-1 |
An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback | |
Thackeray, Chad W.; Hall, Alex | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:12页码:972-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially over recent decades, a trend projected to continue. Shrinking ice reduces surface albedo, leading to greater surface solar absorption, thus amplifying warming and driving further melt. This sea-ice albedo feedback (SIAF) is a key driver of Arctic climate change and an important uncertainty source in climate model projections. Using an ensemble of models, we demonstrate an emergent relationship between future SIAF and an observable version of SIAF in the current climate's seasonal cycle. This relationship is robust in constraining SIAF over the coming decades (Pearson's r = 0.76), and then it degrades. The degradation occurs because some models begin producing ice-free conditions, signalling a transition to a new ice regime. The relationship is strengthened when models with unrealistically thin historical ice are excluded. Because of this tight relationship, reducing model errors in the current climate's seasonal SIAF and ice thickness can narrow SIAF spread under climate change. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499106300024 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; POLAR AMPLIFICATION ; CLIMATE FEEDBACKS ; SURFACE ; THICKNESS ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS ; CLOUD ; MODEL ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223708 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thackeray, Chad W.,Hall, Alex. An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(12):972-+. |
APA | Thackeray, Chad W.,&Hall, Alex.(2019).An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(12),972-+. |
MLA | Thackeray, Chad W.,et al."An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.12(2019):972-+. |
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