资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Pronounced climate warming over the arctic-subarctic regions has lead to profound hydrological changes including intensified river flow, but how soil frost controls aquifer discharge remains poorly understood. This study quantifies the relationship between freezing temperature and baseflow in winter. Analyses show that the traditional reservoir models are unable to reproduce the observed baseflow variations. By incorporating a freezing temperature function in the reservoir models, the model performances are largely improved. It indicates the dominant role of freezing temperature in controlling the aquifer discharge through reducing the watershed conductivity and liquid (active) water content. The results for the Albany watershed in Canada show that the watershed lump conductivity decreases by half when air temperature accumulates to -172 degrees C center dot day from winter start and in extremely cold years, it could decrease by more than 85%. With this relationship, a climate warming of +1, +2, and +4 degrees C would suggest an increase of 7.7%, 16.7%, and 41.0% in conductivity or 6.8%, 14.7%, and 35.0% in winter discharge, respectively. The study provides an important link between climate warming and aquifer discharge in cold regions. The results could be particularly useful for developing process-based models, estimating baseflow variations, and assessing climate change impact on cold region hydrology.