Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures | |
Aamaas, Borgar1; Berntsen, Terje1,2; Samset, Bjorn H.1 | |
2019-12-16 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:24页码:15235-15245 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane (CH4), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90-28 degrees S, 28 degrees S-28 degrees N, 28-60 degrees N, and 60-90 degrees N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by -0.3 +/- 0.08 degrees C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as -0.7 degrees C in the Arctic. Cutting CH4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., SO2) leads to warming. If SLCFs are mitigated heavily, we find a net warming of about 0.1 degrees C, but when uncertainties are included a slight cooling is also possible. In the climate optimal scenario, the largest contributions to cooling come from the energy, domestic, waste, and transportation sectors. In the maximum technically feasible mitigation scenario, emission changes from the industry, energy, and shipping sectors will cause warming. Some measures, such as those in the agriculture waste burning, domestic, transport, and industry sectors, have large impacts on the Arctic, especially by cutting BC emissions in winter in areas near the Arctic. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000503008000003 |
WOS关键词 | LIVED CLIMATE FORCERS ; ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS ; AEROSOL ; POLLUTANTS ; POLLUTION ; IMPACTS ; MITIGATION ; MORTALITY ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224133 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, PB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway; 2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, PB 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aamaas, Borgar,Berntsen, Terje,Samset, Bjorn H.. The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(24):15235-15245. |
APA | Aamaas, Borgar,Berntsen, Terje,&Samset, Bjorn H..(2019).The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(24),15235-15245. |
MLA | Aamaas, Borgar,et al."The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.24(2019):15235-15245. |
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