资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

As the most significant interannual variability in the climate system, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has critical effects on global weather and climate patterns. To simulate and predict ENSO, coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) have become a key tool. However, the accurate simulation of ENSO is still a challenge for CGCMs. The performance of El Nino simulations conducted through FIO-ESM v1.0 is examined based on the outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical experiments. The results show that FIO-ESM v1.0 suffers from similar common problems to other CMIP5 models, including an eastward shift in the central locations of El Nino, adopting a regular period of roughly 3 years, addressing excessively high amplitude, spurious eastward propagation of El Nino events, and Aborted El Nino events. El Nino composite and mixed layer heat budget analyses indicate that these simulation biases are mainly associated with the mean state biases, including a warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) bias for the central-eastern Pacific, a cold SST bias for the western and central Pacific, seasonal cycles of SST of the equatorial eastern Pacific, and weaker trade winds. Weaker SST-cloud-shortwave radiation feedback in La Nina events than in El Nino events is what creates spurious ENSO amplitude symmetry in the model. We suggest that the improvement of El Nino simulations may be realized by focusing on the mean state and SST-cloud-shortwave radiation feedback in the tropical region. Specifically, further incremental improvements in the mean state of the tropical Pacific should constitute the first step to realizing more accurate ENSO simulation.