Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3891-7 |
NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity | |
Harnos, Daniel S.1; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.1; Wang, Hui1; Finan, Christina A.1,2 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:12页码:7267-7285 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A hybrid dynamical-statistical model is pursued for prediction of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity driven by output of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). This is an updated version of a proven multiple linear regression method conditioned on forecast vertical wind shear from the Climate Forecast System and observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The method pursued for prediction utilizes August-October (ASO) Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 degrees N, 20-80 degrees W) vertical wind shear and observed North Atlantic (NATL; 55-65 degrees N, 30-60 degrees W) SST averaged over the 3 months preceding the forecast in conjunction with the full hurricane climatology. NMME forecasts improve upon representations relative to individual members. The NMME multi-model mean better reproduces vertical wind shear distributions over the MDR and captures the observed relationships between SST and vertical wind shear with hurricane trend and interannual variability despite occasionally poor reproductions by individual members. Cross-validation reveals the multi-model average of the hybrid model outputs from the individual NMME members yields forecast errors 10-30% less than the individual members, while correlations with observed hurricane-related activity typically improve. The NMME methodology is shown to be competitive with official outlooks from Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration over recent years. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclone Hurricane Typhoon North American Multimodel Ensemble Interannual variability Seasonal prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495247200010 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; EL-NINO ; OSCILLATION ; MODEL ; FORECAST ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; RAINFALL ; INCREASE ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224292 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.NWS, Climate Predict Ctr, NCEP, NOAA, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.Innovim LLC, Greenbelt, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harnos, Daniel S.,Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.,Wang, Hui,et al. NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7267-7285. |
APA | Harnos, Daniel S.,Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.,Wang, Hui,&Finan, Christina A..(2019).NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7267-7285. |
MLA | Harnos, Daniel S.,et al."NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7267-7285. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论