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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02512-8 |
Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change | |
Ross, Andrew C.1,2; Najjar, Raymond G.1 | |
2019-11-06 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 157期号:3-4页码:407-428 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A challenge for climate impact studies is the selection of a limited number of climate model projections among the dozens that are typically available. Here, we examine the impacts of methods for climate model selection on projections of runoff change for five different watersheds across the conterminous USA. The results from an ensemble of 29 global climate models and 29 corresponding hydrological model simulations are compared with the results that would have been obtained by applying six different selection methods to the climate model data and using only the selected models to drive the hydrological model. We evaluate each selection method based on whether the runoff projections produced by the method meet the method's objective and on whether the results are sensitive to the number of models chosen. The Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang (KKZ) method, which is intended to maximize the spread in the projected climate change, was the only method that met both criteria for suitability. Although the KKZ method generally performed well, the results from both it and the other methods varied somewhat unpredictably based on region and number of models chosen. This study shows that the methods and models used in similar top-down studies should be carefully chosen and that the results obtained should be interpreted with caution. |
英文关键词 | Climate model ensembles Hydrological change Model selection Model uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494929500001 |
WOS关键词 | ABSOLUTE ERROR MAE ; BIAS CORRECTION ; CHANGE IMPACT ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RISK ; PROJECTIONS ; CMIP5 ; TRANSFERABILITY ; EUTROPHICATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224353 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ross, Andrew C.,Najjar, Raymond G.. Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,157(3-4):407-428. |
APA | Ross, Andrew C.,&Najjar, Raymond G..(2019).Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,157(3-4),407-428. |
MLA | Ross, Andrew C.,et al."Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 157.3-4(2019):407-428. |
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