Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab55ab |
Recalibrating climate prospects | |
Lovins, Amory B.1; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana2; Mundaca, Luis3; Kammen, Daniel M.4,5,6; Glassman, Jacob W.1 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:12 |
文章类型 | Editorial Material |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Hungary; Sweden |
英文摘要 | IPCC's 2018 Special Report is a stark and bracing reminder of climate threats. Yet literature, reportage, and public discourse reflect imbalanced risk and opportunity. Climate science often understates changes' speed and nonlinearity, but Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and similar studies often understate realistic mitigation options. Since similar to 2010, global mitigation of fossil CO2-including by often-uncounted modern renewable heat comparable to solar-plus-wind electricity-has accelerated to about the pace (if sustained) needed for a 2 degrees C trajectory. Mitigation has uncertainties, emergent properties, feasibility thresholds, and nonlinearities at least comparable to climate's, creating opportunities for aggressive action. Renewable electricity's swift uptake can now be echoed as proven integrative design can make end-use efficiency severalfold larger and cheaper, often with increasing returns (lower cost with rising quantity). Saved energy-the world's largest decarbonizer and energy 'source' (bigger than oil)-can then potentiate renewables and cut supply investments, as a few recent efficiency-centric IAMs confirm. Optimizing choices, combinations, timing, and sequencing of technologies, urban form, behavioral shifts, etc could save still more energy, money, and time. Some rigorous engineering-based national studies outside standard climate literature even imply potential 1.5 degrees C global trajectories cheaper than business-as-usual. A complementary opportunity-rapidly and durably abating hydrocarbon industries' deliberate upstream CH4 releases from flares and engineered vents, by any large operator's profitably abating its own and others' emissions-could stabilize (or more) the global methane cycle and buy time to abate more CO2. Together, these findings justify sober recalibration of the prospects for a fairer, healthier, cooler, and safer world. Supported by other disciplines, improved IAMs can illuminate this potential and support its refinement. Ambitious policies and aggressive marketplace and societal adoption of profitable new abatement opportunities need not wait for better models, but better models would help them to attract merited attention, scale faster, and turn numbing despair into collectively powerful applied hope. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000501139400001 |
WOS关键词 | INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS ; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; DEMAND-SIDE SOLUTIONS ; ENERGY EFFICIENCY ; CO-BENEFITS ; AIR-QUALITY ; SCENARIOS ; SYSTEM ; INTERVENTION ; CONSERVATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224737 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Rocky Mt Inst, Basalt, CO 81621 USA; 2.Cent European Univ, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Budapest, Hungary; 3.Lund Univ, Int Inst Ind Environm Econ, Lund, Sweden; 4.Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 5.Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Ctr Environm Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 6.Univ Calif Berkeley, Nucl Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lovins, Amory B.,Urge-Vorsatz, Diana,Mundaca, Luis,et al. Recalibrating climate prospects[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(12). |
APA | Lovins, Amory B.,Urge-Vorsatz, Diana,Mundaca, Luis,Kammen, Daniel M.,&Glassman, Jacob W..(2019).Recalibrating climate prospects.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(12). |
MLA | Lovins, Amory B.,et al."Recalibrating climate prospects".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.12(2019). |
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