Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084775 |
Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model | |
Guo, Yicun1,2; Zhuang, Jiancang1,3,4,5,6; Ogata, Yosihiko1 | |
2019-11-21 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:22页码:12881-12889 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | We implemented an extended version of the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which simultaneously incorporates earthquake focal depths and rupture geometries of large earthquakes, and applied it to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. Results show that the new model corrects the estimation biases of model parameters in the point source ETAS model. The reconstructed patterns of productivity density of aftershocks, along the mainshock rupture plane, form complementary patterns for coseismic slip in space and show significant spatiotemporal migrations. Large aftershocks tend to nucleate at the edges of high productivity density areas. The decay of direct aftershocks near the mainshock rupture is consistent with static stress changes caused by the mainshock. The forecasting capability of the ETAS model can be enhanced by considering the rupture geometries of mainshocks, especially for forecasting aftershocks in the first 1-2 days. In the simulation test, the incorporation of focal depths improves the forecasting resolution. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497613000001 |
WOS关键词 | POINT-PROCESS MODELS ; EARTHQUAKE ; SEISMICITY ; MAGNITUDE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225068 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Stat Math, Tokyo, Japan; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Computat Geodynam, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Grad Univ Adv Studies SOKEDAI, Dept Stat Sci, Tokyo, Japan; 4.London Math Lab, London, England; 5.China Earthquake Adm, Inst Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China; 6.China Earthquake Adm, Inst Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Yicun,Zhuang, Jiancang,Ogata, Yosihiko. Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):12881-12889. |
APA | Guo, Yicun,Zhuang, Jiancang,&Ogata, Yosihiko.(2019).Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),12881-12889. |
MLA | Guo, Yicun,et al."Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):12881-12889. |
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