Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084385 |
The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models | |
Huang, Jianbin1,2,3; Ou, Tinghai1; Chen, Deliang1; Luo, Yong2,3,4; Zhao, Zongci2 | |
2019-11-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:22页码:13338-13345 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Realistically representing the Arctic amplification in global climate models (GCMs) represents a key to accurately predict the climate system's response to increasing anthropogenic forcings. We examined the amplified Arctic warming over the past century simulated by 36 state-of-the-art GCMs against observation. We found a clear difference between the simulations and the observation in terms of the evolution of the secular warming rates. The observed rates of the secular Arctic warming increase from 0.14 degrees C/10a in the early 1890s to 0.21 degrees C/10a in the mid-2010s, while the GCMs show a negligible trend to 0.35 degrees C/10a at the corresponding times. The overestimation of the secular warming rate in the GCMs starts from the mid-twentieth century and aggravates with time. Further analysis indicates that the overestimation mainly comes from the exaggerated heating contribution from the Arctic sea ice melting. This result implies that the future secular Arctic warming may have been over-projected. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000505879600075 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE LOSS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AMPLIFICATION ; AIR ; ATTRIBUTION ; IMPACTS ; SHEET |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225120 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden; 2.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Corp Polar Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryosphere Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Jianbin,Ou, Tinghai,Chen, Deliang,et al. The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):13338-13345. |
APA | Huang, Jianbin,Ou, Tinghai,Chen, Deliang,Luo, Yong,&Zhao, Zongci.(2019).The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),13338-13345. |
MLA | Huang, Jianbin,et al."The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):13338-13345. |
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