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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084878 |
Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing | |
Pohlmann, Holger1,2; Mueller, Wolfgang A.1; Bittner, Matthias1; Hettrich, Sebastian1; Modali, Kameswarrao1; Pankatz, Klaus2; Marotzke, Jochem1 | |
2019-12-03 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:23页码:14118-14125 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | We analyze the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) variability of historical and decadal hindcast simulations of the MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimavorhersagen) decadal prediction system using the higher resolved version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find a realistic variability of the QBO in historical simulations when changing from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) external forcing. This agreement between the simulated and the observed QBO is improved by the initialization of decadal hindcast simulations with CMIP6 forcing in the first three lead years. In the decadal hindcast simulations, the agreement is similar to a persistence forecast in the first five lead years and higher than the persistence forecast in the later lead years. We find a strong relation between the QBO and the ozone variability in the stratosphere and conclude that the change of the ozone data from CMIP5 to CMIP6 leads to the improved QBO variability and prediction skill in our simulations. |
英文关键词 | CMIP6 decadal prediction quasi-biennial oscillation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500245700001 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PHASE-1 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225156 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 2.Deutsch Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pohlmann, Holger,Mueller, Wolfgang A.,Bittner, Matthias,et al. Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(23):14118-14125. |
APA | Pohlmann, Holger.,Mueller, Wolfgang A..,Bittner, Matthias.,Hettrich, Sebastian.,Modali, Kameswarrao.,...&Marotzke, Jochem.(2019).Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(23),14118-14125. |
MLA | Pohlmann, Holger,et al."Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.23(2019):14118-14125. |
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