Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14864 |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins | |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie1,2; Holland, Marika3; Iles, David1; Labrousse, Sara1; Landrum, Laura3; Garnier, Jimmy4; Caswell, Hal1,5,6; Weimerskirch, Henri2; LaRue, Michelle7,8; Ji, Rubao1; Barbraud, Christophe2 | |
2019-11-07 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France; Germany; Netherlands; New Zealand |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities. |
英文关键词 | Antarctica climate change mitigation dispersion emission reduction pledges seabirds |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494742200001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE EXTENT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; HABITAT SELECTION ; DISPERSAL ; FRAMEWORK ; BEHAVIOR ; INFORMATION ; ABUNDANCE ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225272 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Biol Dept, MS-34, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA; 2.Univ La Rochelle, UMR 7372, CNRS, Ctr dEtud Biol Chize, Villiers En Bois, France; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 4.Univ Savoie Mt Blanc, UMR 5127, Lab Math, Le Bourget Du Lac, France; 5.Max Planck Inst Demog Res, Rostock, Germany; 6.Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 7.Univ Canterbury, Kura Aronukurangi, Christchurch, New Zealand; 8.Univ Minnesota, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Minneapolis, MN USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jenouvrier, Stephanie,Holland, Marika,Iles, David,et al. The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Jenouvrier, Stephanie.,Holland, Marika.,Iles, David.,Labrousse, Sara.,Landrum, Laura.,...&Barbraud, Christophe.(2019).The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. |
MLA | Jenouvrier, Stephanie,et al."The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2019). |
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