GSTDTAP
DOI10.1002/joc.6384
Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method
Xiao, Mingzhong1,2
2019-11-11
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Quantifying spatiotemporal influence of climate index on extreme precipitation will help to better understand the variability of extreme precipitation. The extreme precipitation is usually influenced by different climate indices, and mutual offset is unavoidable to occur, thus the rotated empirical orthogonal function was used to identify the different influences of climate indices on extreme precipitation in space and time. The variation of extreme precipitation in data-scarce region is also concerned, hence, an improved spatiotemporal regional frequency analysis model was further developed, therein the identified spatiotemporal influences of climate indices on extreme precipitation were quantified using Bayesian hierarchical method. In this study, the in situ seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent seasonal precipitation extremes from 1957 to 2010 in the Poyang Lake basin, and spatiotemporal influences of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on seasonal Rx1day were quantified. Results indicated that the seasonal Rx1day was influenced by different climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin, ENSO tends to affect spring and autumn Rx1day, IOD tends to affect summer Rx1day, and NAO tends to affect spring and winter Rx1day. The response of extreme precipitation on climate index is varied in different regions, and this was well distinguished and verified, such as negative ENSO (in the same year) events tends to cause spring Rx1day slight decrease in the southern part of the basin while increase about 15% in the northern part with center around the Poyang lake.


英文关键词Bayesian climate index extreme precipitation frequency analysis Poyang Lake basin
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000495625500001
WOS关键词FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; POYANG LAKE ; RIVER-BASIN ; ENSO ; RAINFALL ; PATTERNS ; DROUGHTS ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225420
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
2.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Xiao, Mingzhong. Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019.
APA Xiao, Mingzhong.(2019).Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA Xiao, Mingzhong."Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019).
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