GSTDTAP
DOI10.1002/joc.6434
Preconditioning of the precipitation interannual variability in southern Mexico and Central America by oceanic and atmospheric anomalies
Straffon, Alejandra1,2; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge1; Estrada, Francisco1,3
2019-12-22
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Mexico; Netherlands
英文摘要

The interannual variability of precipitation in southern Mexico, northwestern Central America, and part of the northeastern tropical Pacific and its relation with previous oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are studied using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for 1979-2015. The rainy season over the study region was divided into three intraseasonal phases: before, during, and after the mid-summer drought. The interannual precipitation anomalies between the three phases are significantly correlated with each other, although there are years in which the precipitation anomalies for different phases differ in their sign. The interannual variability of the precipitation in this region is closely related with previous oceanic and atmospheric anomalies that occurred in the 60-31 days before the beginning of each phase. Multilinear regression models, between precipitation anomalies and previous anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric variables, explain 49, 60, and 55% of the variance of the precipitation interannual variability for the respective phase. Within a phase, in more than 76% of the cases, the estimated precipitation anomalies had the correct sign but in most cases their amplitude, irrespective of sign, were underestimated, as is expected from a regression model which aims to estimate the conditional mean. The more relevant processes associated with the interannual variability of precipitation in the study area are the westward displacement and strengthening of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, the meridional displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the strength of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet. In general, the mechanisms that explain interannual variability of precipitation are the same through the phases. However, the magnitude of the anomalies and the size of the regions evolve in time in a particular way for each variable.


英文关键词intraseasonal forecast midsummer drought precipitation interannual variability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000503783900001
WOS关键词LOW-LEVEL JET ; MIDSUMMER DROUGHT ; BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; GAP WINDS ; WARM POOL ; CLIMATE ; SEA ; FORECAST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225533
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Univ Nacl Autonoma, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City, DF, Mexico;
2.Univ Nacl Autonoma, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, Mexico City, DF, Mexico;
3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Straffon, Alejandra,Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge,Estrada, Francisco. Preconditioning of the precipitation interannual variability in southern Mexico and Central America by oceanic and atmospheric anomalies[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019.
APA Straffon, Alejandra,Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge,&Estrada, Francisco.(2019).Preconditioning of the precipitation interannual variability in southern Mexico and Central America by oceanic and atmospheric anomalies.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA Straffon, Alejandra,et al."Preconditioning of the precipitation interannual variability in southern Mexico and Central America by oceanic and atmospheric anomalies".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019).
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