GSTDTAP
DOI10.1029/2019JD031165
Seasonal Characteristics of Model Uncertainties From Biogenic Fluxes, Transport, and Large-Scale Boundary Inflow in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations Over North America
Feng, Sha1; Lauvaux, Thomas1,2; Davis, Kenneth J.1,3; Keller, Klaus3,4; Zhou, Yu5; Williams, Christopher5; Schuh, Andrew E.6; Liu, Junjie7; Baker, Ian6
2019-12-25
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2019
卷号124期号:24页码:14325-14346
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; France
英文摘要

Regional estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes over North America from both atmospheric inversions ("top-down" approach) and terrestrial biosphere models ("bottom-up") remain highly uncertain. We merge these approaches with an ensemble-based, regional modeling system able to diagnose and quantify the causes of uncertainties in top-down atmospheric estimates of the terrestrial sink over North America. Our ensemble approach quantifies and partitions the uncertainty stemming from atmospheric transport, the biosphere, and large-scale CO2 boundary inflow (boundary conditions). We use meteorological data, CO2 fluxes, and CO2 mole fraction measurements to assure the reliability of the ensemble system. Our results show that all uncertainty components have clear seasonal variations. The biogenic flux component dominates modeled boundary layer CO2 uncertainty, ranging from 2.5 ppm in summer and winter to 1.5 ppm in fall and spring. Spatially, it remains highly uncertain in the U.S. Corn Belt regions. Transport uncertainty reaches a maximum of 2.5 ppm in the summer months and stays at 1.2 ppm for the rest of the year and is highly correlated with the biogenic CO2 fluxes. Boundary conditions play the smallest role in atmospheric boundary layer CO2 uncertainty with a magnitude smaller than 1 ppm. However, boundary conditions are the most important uncertainty component in column-averaged CO2 (XCO2). The spatiotemporal variations of the uncertainties in modeled XCO2 are similar to those in atmospheric boundary layer CO2.


英文关键词Regional CO2 modeling Uncertainty Tranport Biogenic fluxes Boundary conditions
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000504296800001
WOS关键词CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ; ERROR CHARACTERIZATION ; ENERGY FLUXES ; PART I ; ENSEMBLE ; ECOSYSTEM ; LAND ; EXCHANGE ; IMPACT ; CYCLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225971
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
2.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, CEA, CNRS,UVSQ IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France;
3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
4.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
5.Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Dept Biol, Worcester, MA 01610 USA;
6.Colorado State Univ, Cooperat Inst Res Atmosphere, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;
7.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, NASA, Pasadena, CA USA
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Feng, Sha,Lauvaux, Thomas,Davis, Kenneth J.,et al. Seasonal Characteristics of Model Uncertainties From Biogenic Fluxes, Transport, and Large-Scale Boundary Inflow in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations Over North America[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(24):14325-14346.
APA Feng, Sha.,Lauvaux, Thomas.,Davis, Kenneth J..,Keller, Klaus.,Zhou, Yu.,...&Baker, Ian.(2019).Seasonal Characteristics of Model Uncertainties From Biogenic Fluxes, Transport, and Large-Scale Boundary Inflow in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations Over North America.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(24),14325-14346.
MLA Feng, Sha,et al."Seasonal Characteristics of Model Uncertainties From Biogenic Fluxes, Transport, and Large-Scale Boundary Inflow in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations Over North America".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.24(2019):14325-14346.
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