GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1289/EHP166
Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios
Petkova, Elisaveta P.1; Vink, Jan K.2; Horton, Radley M.3; Gasparrini, Antonio4,5; Bader, Daniel A.3; Francis, Joe D.2; Kinney, Patrick L.6
2017
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
ISSN0091-6765
EISSN1552-9924
出版年2017
卷号125期号:1
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; England
英文摘要

BACKGROUND: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics.


OBJECTIVES: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens.


METHODS: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).


RESULTS: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.


CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000392195000007
WOS关键词EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; PART II ; PUBLIC-HEALTH ; COUPLED MODEL ; IMPACTS ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATION ; CITIES ; FORMULATION ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22729
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Natl Ctr Disaster Preparedness, 215 W 125th St, New York, NY 10027 USA;
2.Cornell Univ, Cornell Program Appl Demog, Ithaca, NY USA;
3.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA;
4.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Social & Environm Hlth Res, London, England;
5.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Med Stat, London, England;
6.Columbia Univ, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, New York, NY USA
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GB/T 7714
Petkova, Elisaveta P.,Vink, Jan K.,Horton, Radley M.,et al. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2017,125(1).
APA Petkova, Elisaveta P..,Vink, Jan K..,Horton, Radley M..,Gasparrini, Antonio.,Bader, Daniel A..,...&Kinney, Patrick L..(2017).Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(1).
MLA Petkova, Elisaveta P.,et al."Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.1(2017).
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