Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018 |
Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia | |
Permadi, Didin Agustian1; Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh1; Vautard, Robert2 | |
2018-03-07 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:5页码:3321-3334 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Thailand; France |
英文摘要 | Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming "no intervention" with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand ( road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2:5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98Wm(-2), which would increase to 2.0Wm(-2) under BAU2030 and 1.4Wm(-2) under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production, and the cost-benefit analysis of the measures' implementation to provide relevant information for policy making. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426918000005 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PUBLIC-HEALTH ; AEROSOLS ; POLLUTION ; POLLUTANTS ; INVENTORY ; BENEFITS ; CHINA ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22774 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Asian Inst Technol, Environm Engn & Management, Sch Environm Resources & Dev, Klongluang 12120, Pathumthani, Thailand; 2.IPSL, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Permadi, Didin Agustian,Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh,Vautard, Robert. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(5):3321-3334. |
APA | Permadi, Didin Agustian,Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh,&Vautard, Robert.(2018).Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(5),3321-3334. |
MLA | Permadi, Didin Agustian,et al."Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.5(2018):3321-3334. |
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