GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018
Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia
Permadi, Didin Agustian1; Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh1; Vautard, Robert2
2018-03-07
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
ISSN1680-7316
EISSN1680-7324
出版年2018
卷号18期号:5页码:3321-3334
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Thailand; France
英文摘要

Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming "no intervention" with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand ( road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2:5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98Wm(-2), which would increase to 2.0Wm(-2) under BAU2030 and 1.4Wm(-2) under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production, and the cost-benefit analysis of the measures' implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.


领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000426918000005
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PUBLIC-HEALTH ; AEROSOLS ; POLLUTION ; POLLUTANTS ; INVENTORY ; BENEFITS ; CHINA ; MODEL
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22774
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Asian Inst Technol, Environm Engn & Management, Sch Environm Resources & Dev, Klongluang 12120, Pathumthani, Thailand;
2.IPSL, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France
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GB/T 7714
Permadi, Didin Agustian,Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh,Vautard, Robert. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(5):3321-3334.
APA Permadi, Didin Agustian,Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh,&Vautard, Robert.(2018).Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(5),3321-3334.
MLA Permadi, Didin Agustian,et al."Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.5(2018):3321-3334.
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